Wednesday, January 04, 2006

Iran, the powder keg of 2006?

I was watching Fox News Sunday last night, I love my DVR by the way, when the panel was asked for their predictions. Charles Krauthammer predicted that Iran comes very close to obtaining a working nuke and is attacked by Israel causing a huge shake up in the middle east. Charles is not a "the sky is falling' kind of person, that makes me sit up and take notice.

While everyone knows that the President of Iran is nuts, I believe the technical term for it is 'freakin crackers', there are some disturbing news stories that you better get your mind around and soon. I don't care for the journalist who just pulled our electronic surveillance pants down for Al Queda to take advantage of, but if his story about the CIA screwing the pooch in Iran and blowing the cover of it's agents, we are blind to what is happening inside that country.
Of the Iran spy network snafu, Risen writes that the Iranian turned out to be a double agent who turned over the information to Iranian security officials, which allowed them to "roll up" the CIA agent network throughout the country.

"It left the CIA virtually blind in Iran, unable to provide any significant intelligence on one of the critical issues facing the United States - where Tehran was about to go nuclear," he writes
Rolled up, that is a nice way to say the field agents were most likely tortured and killed. Rolled up sounds better when you talking about compromising our security.

Then there is this story that makes me shudder even more.
The assessment declares that Iran has developed an extensive web of front companies, official bodies, academic institutes and middlemen dedicated to obtaining - in western Europe and the former Soviet Union - the expertise, training and equipment for nuclear programs, missile development and biological and chemical weapons arsenals.

"In addition to sensitive goods, Iran continues intensively to seek the technology and know-how for military applications of all kinds," it says.

The document lists scores of Iranian companies and institutions involved in the arms race. It also details Tehran's growing determination to perfect a ballistic missile capable of delivering warheads far beyond its borders.
Makes you feel warm and secure right?

Then just to add to the mix Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is in critical condition. Will Benjamin Netanyahu will be back in power soon? Netanyahu is a hard liner and will defend Israel against the Iranian threat. So, does this mean a few jets with the star of David crossing over the Iranian border to destroy Iran's nuclear program? Could be.

If I were in Vegas I think the odds would be 4 to 5 in favor of an Israeli strike in 06'. If that happens I can see the US up its ears in a shooting war with Iran and Syria.

Iran may eclipse Iraq as the most troubling spot in the middle east. The Iraqis better get their armed forces trained and ready in a hurry, if this goes south, the training wheels will have to come off.

Murtha may get his wish after all , we may have to re-deploy our forces to areas outside of Iraq.

2 comments:

Tex said...

Sharon has always been a very strong military strategist but not very strong as PM. We see evidence of his skills during the 6 Day war.

If anyone takes out the Iranian nuclear program, it will be the Israelies again. They are the ones who took out Iraq's Nuclear program in the 70's by dictator Hussein and lauching SCUD missiles into Israel was retribution during the 1st Gulf War. Incidently, France financed that nuclear program and it's one of the main reasons it was loathe to go to war against Iraq, they'd lose all that money.

The Israelis have something no other nation really has and that is favor with God, and it shows in their battles, even against the terrorist PLO.

I don't think Netanyahu will be in power soon. The guy is brilliant. Saw him on Larry King and he just blew my mind away. NOt too sure about what I think about Ehud Olmert. So long as he doesn't pull a Barak, I think we'll be fine.

My two cents.

Tex
Denton, TX

Yolo Cowboy said...

Talk about timing, Sharon's Kadima party isn't really a party yet and the founder has a stroke. Maybe Olmert can lead Israel, it is too early to tell.

Who ever takes the reins in Israel, I hope the don't give away anymore ground, that person will likely have a heart attack. At least that is what Pat Robertson thinks. Pat, can you just shut up, please?